Institute forecasts moderate to severe drought in the South and South-East and excess rainfall in coastal provinces between January and March 2027
The National Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics (INAMET) is forecasting drought in southern and south-eastern Angola and excess rainfall along the country’s coast during the 2026/2027 rainy season, as a result of the El Niño phenomenon and the Tropical South Atlantic (TSA) index. According to Bulletin no. 01 of the Rainy Season, cited by Lusa, these global climate phenomena influence ocean-atmosphere conditions across the national territory. The rainy season officially began on 15 August and runs until 15 May 2027.
The strongest impact is expected in the January to March 2027 quarter, a period INAMET anticipates will split the country into two distinct scenarios. For that stage, the institute points to moderate and severe meteorological drought in the provinces of Lunda Sul, Moxico, Moxico Leste and Cuando, across much of Cunene and Cubango, in eastern Lunda Norte and in the far north-east of Bié. Conversely, above-normal rainfall is forecast for Cabinda, Zaire, Bengo, Luanda, Icolo e Bengo, Benguela, Uíge, Cuanza Norte, Cuanza Sul and Huíla, as well as in northern and eastern Namibe and the far south-west of Huambo.
For the October to December 2026 quarter, the document forecasts moderate drought in Cunene, Cuando Cubango and the southern areas of Moxico and Moxico Leste, and above-normal rainfall throughout the Northern and Coastal regions. According to INAMET, the excess rainfall in coastal areas stems from the combination of El Niño with a more intense positive phase of the Tropical South Atlantic, a scenario that favours precipitation along the coast. The influence of the TSA is expected to be felt mainly at the end of the coming quarter and throughout the first quarter of 2027.
The warning comes at a time when the international scientific community is assessing the human cost of what is regarded as a “Super El Niño”. Estimates from the Climate Impact Lab at the University of Chicago, cited by Novo Jornal, point to at least 451,000 additional deaths worldwide between June 2026 and February 2027 as a result of the extreme heat associated with the phenomenon, with significant impacts not only in poorer regions but also in high-income countries. INAMET recommends that citizens monitor forecasts on an ongoing basis, announcing a further update for the second half of November, and urges the public to rely on the meteorological and climate information it issues, in its capacity as the body responsible for scientific research and services in the fields of meteorology and climatology.
25/09/2026
