The goals presented by Sonangol at the sector’s advisory council are, at the very least, highly ambitious, considering the current reality. The oil company promises that by 2027, the three refineries under construction in the country will be operational and will produce 1,766 thousand metric tons (MT) of gasoline in Angola—today, around 240 thousand MT are produced, which, in practice, means an increase of 635% in less than three years.
When looking at the scenario presented by Sonangol regarding petroleum refined imports, it becomes clear that the estimate for this year is 3.5 million MT, dropping to 3 million MT in 2025, rising again to 3.1 million MT in 2026, and “disappearing” in 2027, even projecting a surplus of 6% compared to consumption. The company’s forecast for lubricant production in Angola is even more “optimistic,” increasing from the current 8.85 thousand MT to 50,953 MT next year—a 476% growth in just 12 months. The following year, production is expected to reach 69,700 MT.
To support this “miracle,” Sonangol is convinced that by 2027, the three refineries planned for the country will be operational. The Cabinda refinery, with a production capacity of 60,000 barrels/day—about half of which will be gasoline and diesel—will complete its two production phases next year. In practical terms, if this timeline is met (which has already been delayed several times), it will happen six years after the project was handed over to Gemcorp (90%) and Sonangol (10%), which, for a modular refinery, is not exactly an acceptable timeframe.
Sonangol also foresees that the Soyo refinery will be operational in 2026 (producing 100,000 barrels/day), despite having announced that the project’s physical execution is currently only 2% and that there are still doubts about its financing model. It also foresees that the Lobito refinery (producing 200,000 barrels/day) will be fully operational by 2027, with the project’s physical execution at 10.29%, while discussions are still ongoing about the entry of potential shareholders.
Sonangol is also highly optimistic about its target for crude oil and natural gas production by 2027, aiming for a 10% share. According to November data, this share was around 2.8%; the forecast for the end of the year is 4%. However, in three years, it aims to increase the volume by approximately 260% compared to the current level.
In this optimistic outlook, Sonangol has announced other goals for the upcoming year: increasing renewable energy production capacity from 12 MW to 66 MW (a 450% increase in just 12 months), boosting fuel storage capacity by an additional 582,000 m³, and preparing for capital dispersion on the stock market, although no specific date has been set for this initiative.
Expansão , 27/12/2024
