The rise of far-right parties in recent years has been a notable trend, and Portugal is no exception. The characteristics of these parties differ depending on their national context. However, they converge particularly on the issue of migration, where a discourse opposed to multiculturalism, xenophobic and anti-immigration in nature, is evident. Migration phenomena are portrayed as threats to the economy, security, and national identity, and stricter border controls are advocated.
The number of migrants who moved permanently to OECD countries decreased in 2025 but remains historically high, totaling 6.2 million people, the organization announced.
The annual report of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), International Migration Outlook 2026, shows that permanent migration to one of the 38 member states fell by 4% in 2025 compared to the previous year, following three years of strong increases in the post-COVID-19 pandemic period.
Typically, half of all permanent migration to the OECD is concentrated in five main destination countries (United States, Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain). In 2025, the United States alone accounted for one quarter of the total, with 1.4 million new permanent immigrants.
In 2025, OECD countries recorded an average of nine new permanent migrants per 1,000 inhabitants.
In about half of the OECD countries, the rate ranged between five and 10 per 1,000 inhabitants.
The absence of immigrants in the global economy would have severe impacts and would lead to the collapse of key sectors in several nations, with sharp GDP contractions and structural imbalances in social security systems. Immigration is currently a fundamental pillar of global demographic and labor stability.
An analysis by the Census Bureau found that the United States is heading toward negative net international migration—that is, a situation in which more people leave the country than enter—something that has not occurred since 1971. According to the cited Brookings Institution analysis, this has already happened in 2025.
The reduction in immigration also has moderate restraining effects on GDP and will weaken consumption by an estimated amount between US$60 billion and US$110 billion over the next two years.
In the European Union, around 13% of workers in key sectors (such as healthcare and cleaning services) are immigrants, a figure that reaches 33% in low-skilled sectors.
More than 59 million migrants work in the Asia-Pacific region.
Without immigrants, the more industrialized Asian economies would face severe stagnation, sectoral collapses, and difficulties in maintaining global competitiveness.
Immigrants contribute, on average, about 7% of GDP in the African host countries studied, with significant variations.
Their departure would cause a direct economic contraction.
Immigration is a “growth engine” on the African continent.
A scenario without immigrants would result in economic stagnation, lower tax revenues, and increased poverty, especially in regions that depend heavily on cross-border trade and foreign workers.
Overall, the global economy would collapse under restrictive immigration policies.
Controlled inclusion policies are fundamental to global economic growth.
At the moment of choosing political leaders, citizens must fundamentally reflect on this impact on future domestic and external economies.
* University Lecturer
Financial Consultant
02/09/2026
